Key Actuarial Justifications
These are standard justifications and assumptions that should be explicitly stated on the exam when selecting parameters.
Loss & Premium Trending
- LDF Selections (Changing Trends):
“There is an apparent downward trend in the loss development factors. I have selected a 2-year average to remain responsive to the recent trend without being overly reactive to single-year anomalies.”
- Underwriting Expenses (Fixed Expenses):
“I assume that premium trends at the same rate as fixed expenses, meaning the fixed expense ratio remains constant and does not require explicit trending.”
- Alternative: “For simplicity and without a significant loss of accuracy, I have trended all fixed expenses using the average written date.”
Loss Development
- Disposal Rates (Changing Settlement Speed):
“Disposal rates have been trending downward, indicating a slowdown in closing claims. I have selected the latest 3-year average to be more responsive to this shift while remaining conservative in case the trend stabilizes.”